04 Jul Is it what it seems to be? (NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB)
Say you had the choice between two surgeons of similar rank in
the same department in some hospital. The first is highly refined
in appearance; he wears silver-rimmed glasses, has a thin build,
delicate hands, measured speech, and elegant gestures. His hair is
silver and well combed. He is the person you would put in a
movie if you needed to impersonate a surgeon. His office
prominently boasts Ivy League diplomas, both for his
undergraduate and medical schools.
The second one looks like a butcher; he is overweight, with
large hands, uncouth speech, and an unkempt appearance. His
shirt is dangling from the back. No known tailor on the East Coast
of the U.S. is capable of making his shirt button at the neck. He
speaks unapologetically with a strong New Yawk accent, as if he
wasn’t aware of it. He even has a gold tooth showing when he
opens his mouth. The absence of diplomas on the wall hints at the
lack of pride in his education: he perhaps went to some local
college. In a movie, you would expect him to impersonate a
retired bodyguard for a junior congressman, or a third-generation
cook in a New Jersey cafeteria.
Now if I had to pick, I would overcome my sucker-proneness
and take the butcher any minute. Even more: I would seek the butcher as a third option if my choice was between two doctors who looked like doctors. Why? Simply the one who doesn’t look the part, conditional on having made a (sort of) successful career in his profession, had to have much to overcome in terms of perception. And if we are lucky enough to have people who do not look the part, it is thanks to the presence of some skin in the game,the contact with reality that filters out incompetence, as reality is blind to looks.
When results come from dealing directly with reality rather than through the agency of commentators, image matters less, even if it correlates to skills. But image matters quite a bit when there is
hierarchy and standardized “job evaluation.” Consider the chief executive officers of corporations: they don’t just look the part, they even look the same. And, worse, when you listen to them
talk, they sound the same, down to the same vocabulary and metaphors. But that’s their job: as I will keep reminding the reader, counter to the common belief, executives are different from entrepreneurs and are supposed to look like actors.
Now there may be some correlation between looks and skills (someone who looks athletic is likely to be athletic), but, conditional on having had some success in spite of not looking the part, it is potent, even crucial, information.
Much has been written about the millionaire next door: the person who is actually rich, on balance, but doesn’t look like the person you would expect to be rich, and vice versa. About every private banker is taught to not be fooled by the looks of the client and avoid chasing Ferrari owners at country clubs. As I am writing these lines, a neighbor in my ancestral village (and like almost everyone there, a remote relative), who led a modest but comfortable life, ate food he grew by himself, drank his own
pastis (arak), that sort of thing, left an estate of a hundred million dollars, a hundred times what one would have expected him to leave.
So the next time you randomly pick a novel, avoid the one with the author photo representing a pensive man with an ascot standing in front of wall-to-wall bookshelves.
By the same reasoning, and flipping the arguments, skilled thieves at large should not look like thieves. Those who do are more likely to be in jail.
Skin in the game
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB
