{"id":41157,"date":"2021-07-04T00:02:39","date_gmt":"2021-07-03T21:02:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/?p=41157"},"modified":"2021-07-04T00:52:12","modified_gmt":"2021-07-03T21:52:12","slug":"is-it-what-it-seems-to-be-2625","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/is-it-what-it-seems-to-be-2625\/?lang=en","title":{"rendered":"Is it what it seems to be? (NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Say you had the choice between two surgeons of similar rank in<br \/>\nthe same department in some hospital. The first is highly refined<br \/>\nin appearance; he wears silver-rimmed glasses, has a thin build,<br \/>\ndelicate hands, measured speech, and elegant gestures. His hair is<br \/>\nsilver and well combed. He is the person you would put in a<br \/>\nmovie if you needed to impersonate a surgeon. His office<br \/>\nprominently boasts Ivy League diplomas, both for his<br \/>\nundergraduate and medical schools.<\/p>\n<p>The second one looks like a butcher; he is overweight, with<br \/>\nlarge hands, uncouth speech, and an unkempt appearance. His<br \/>\nshirt is dangling from the back. No known tailor on the East Coast<br \/>\nof the U.S. is capable of making his shirt button at the neck. He<br \/>\nspeaks unapologetically with a strong New Yawk accent, as if he<br \/>\nwasn\u2019t aware of it. He even has a gold tooth showing when he<br \/>\nopens his mouth. The absence of diplomas on the wall hints at the<br \/>\nlack of pride in his education: he perhaps went to some local<br \/>\ncollege. In a movie, you would expect him to impersonate a<br \/>\nretired bodyguard for a junior congressman, or a third-generation<br \/>\ncook in a New Jersey cafeteria.<\/p>\n<p>Now if I had to pick, I would overcome my sucker-proneness<br \/>\nand take the butcher any minute. Even more: I would seek the butcher as a third option if my choice was between two doctors who looked like doctors. Why? Simply the one who doesn\u2019t look the part, conditional on having made a (sort of) successful career\u00a0in his profession, had to have much to overcome in terms of\u00a0perception. And if we are lucky enough to have people who do not look the part, it is thanks to the presence of some skin in the game,the contact with reality that filters out incompetence, as reality is\u00a0blind to looks.<\/p>\n<p>When results come from dealing directly with reality rather than\u00a0through the agency of commentators, image matters less, even if it\u00a0correlates to skills. But image matters quite a bit when there is<\/p>\n<p>hierarchy and standardized \u201cjob evaluation.\u201d Consider the chief\u00a0executive officers of corporations: they don\u2019t just look the part,\u00a0they even look the same. And, worse, when you listen to them<\/p>\n<p>talk, they sound the same, down to the same vocabulary and\u00a0metaphors. But that\u2019s their job: as I will keep reminding the\u00a0reader, counter to the common belief, executives are different from entrepreneurs and are supposed to look like actors.<\/p>\n<p>Now there may be some correlation between looks and skills\u00a0(someone who looks athletic is likely to be athletic), but,\u00a0conditional on having had some success in spite of not looking the part, it is potent, even crucial, information.<\/p>\n<p>Much has been written about the millionaire next door: the\u00a0person who is actually rich, on balance, but doesn\u2019t look like the\u00a0person you would expect to be rich, and vice versa. About every private banker is taught to not be fooled by the looks of the client\u00a0and avoid chasing Ferrari owners at country clubs. As I am\u00a0 writing these lines, a neighbor in my ancestral village (and like almost everyone there, a remote relative), who led a modest but comfortable life, ate food he grew by himself, drank his own<\/p>\n<p>pastis (arak), that sort of thing, left an estate of a hundred million dollars, a hundred times what one would have expected him to\u00a0leave.<\/p>\n<p>So the next time you randomly pick a novel, avoid the one with\u00a0the author photo representing a pensive man with an ascot\u00a0standing in front of wall-to-wall bookshelves.<\/p>\n<p>By the same reasoning, and flipping the arguments, skilled\u00a0thieves at large should not look like thieves. Those who do are\u00a0more likely to be in jail.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Skin in the game<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Say you had the choice between two surgeons of similar rank in the same department in some hospital. The first is highly refined in appearance; he wears silver-rimmed glasses, has a thin build, delicate hands, measured speech, and elegant gestures. His hair is silver and&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41151,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1","rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg",900,609,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg",900,609,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?fit=300%2C203&ssl=1",300,203,true],"large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,true],"portfolio-square":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=570%2C570&ssl=1",570,570,true],"portfolio-portrait":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=600%2C609&ssl=1",600,609,true],"portfolio-landscape":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=800%2C600&ssl=1",800,600,true],"menu-featured-post":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=345%2C198&ssl=1",345,198,true],"qode-carousel_slider":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=400%2C260&ssl=1",400,260,true],"portfolio_slider":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=500%2C380&ssl=1",500,380,true],"portfolio_masonry_regular":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=500%2C500&ssl=1",500,500,true],"portfolio_masonry_wide":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=900%2C500&ssl=1",900,500,true],"portfolio_masonry_tall":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=500%2C609&ssl=1",500,609,true],"portfolio_masonry_large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,true],"portfolio_masonry_with_space":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?fit=700%2C474&ssl=1",700,474,true],"latest_post_boxes":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=539%2C303&ssl=1",539,303,true],"woocommerce_thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=300%2C300&ssl=1",300,300,true],"woocommerce_single":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?fit=600%2C406&ssl=1",600,406,true],"woocommerce_gallery_thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/post-2625.jpg?resize=100%2C100&ssl=1",100,100,true]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"admin","author_link":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/author\/admin\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/category\/philosophy-en\/?lang=en\" rel=\"category tag\">Philosophy<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Say you had the choice between two surgeons of similar rank in the same department in some hospital. The first is highly refined in appearance; he wears silver-rimmed glasses, has a thin build, delicate hands, measured speech, and elegant gestures. His hair is silver and...","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41157"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41157"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41162,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41157\/revisions\/41162"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}