{"id":36869,"date":"2023-05-24T03:02:29","date_gmt":"2023-05-24T00:02:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/?p=36869&lang=en"},"modified":"2023-05-24T02:08:28","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T23:08:28","slug":"what-the-turkey-didnt-suspect-2238","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/what-the-turkey-didnt-suspect-2238\/?lang=en","title":{"rendered":"What the turkey didn’t suspect… (PAWEL MOTYL)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Once upon a time, there was a turkey\u00a0<\/span><\/span>living the good life on a farm. He\u00a0<\/span><\/span>passed his days in blissful peace,\u00a0<\/span><\/span>each day as lovely as the one before.\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Three times a day a nice farmworker\u00a0<\/span><\/span>brought him a bucket of feed, which\u00a0<\/span><\/span>the turkey gobbled down in ever-\u00a0<\/span><\/span>greater quantities. His pen was\u00a0<\/span><\/span>cleaned regularly. Time drifted by, 50\u00a0<\/span><\/span>days, 100 days, 150 days, then 200\u00a0<\/span><\/span>days. Every day the same: feeding\u00a0<\/span><\/span>and cleaning. If we\u2019d asked that tur-\u00a0<\/span><\/span>key to comment on life on that\u00a0<\/span><\/span>200th day, he would have been full\u00a0<\/span><\/span>of positivity. This is the life! And if we\u2019d asked him what the 201st was\u00a0going to look like, he would\u00a0 have been\u00a0puzzled:\u00a0What\u00a0else\u00a0could\u00a0it\u00a0look\u00a0like? The same as before! Three\u00a0meals a day and a clean pen. Sadly,\u00a0the turkey didn\u2019t know that Thanks-\u00a0giving was just around the corner\u00a0and that on day 201 he would be\u00a0meeting the first and last black swan\u00a0in his life\u2014something he was unable\u00a0to predict based on his previous\u00a0experience and for which he couldn\u2019t\u00a0prepare.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the bad news: We\u2019re no dif<\/span>ferent to the turkey. We have a tendency to extrapolate positive\u00a0trends. If something has developed\u00a0over a reasonably long period in a\u00a0predictable and ordered fashion, we\u00a0subconsciously assume that it will\u00a0continue that way. This is a trap that\u00a0our cognitive system sets for us. It\u00a0affects the way we absorb and\u00a0process information from our environment, and then draw conclusions\u00a0based on that information. We are\u00a0particularly susceptible to positive\u00a0trends because it\u2019s comforting to assume (consciously or not) that our\u00a0current successes will follow us into the future. This assumption is typically accompanied by our ignoring\u00a0important signals from the world\u00a0around us that the trend is about to\u00a0change\u2014just like the turkey, who,\u00a0after 200 days of pampering, failed\u00a0to notice that the farmer was sharp-\u00a0ening his knife.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Labyrinth: The Art of Decision-Making<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Pawel Motyl<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Image A: https:\/\/www.vectorstock.com\/royalty-free-vector\/flat-style-of-turkey-vector-13611507<\/p>\n

Image B: https:\/\/gordonclarkphotography.com\/<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Once upon a time, there was a turkey\u00a0living the good life on a farm. He\u00a0passed his days in blissful peace,\u00a0each day as lovely as the one before.\u00a0Three times a day a nice farmworker\u00a0brought him a bucket of feed, which\u00a0the turkey gobbled down in ever-\u00a0greater quantities….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":36864,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73,1],"tags":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1","rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg",900,609,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg",900,609,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?fit=300%2C203&ssl=1",300,203,true],"large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?fit=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,true],"portfolio-square":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=570%2C570&ssl=1",570,570,true],"portfolio-portrait":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=600%2C609&ssl=1",600,609,true],"portfolio-landscape":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=800%2C600&ssl=1",800,600,true],"menu-featured-post":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=345%2C198&ssl=1",345,198,true],"qode-carousel_slider":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=400%2C260&ssl=1",400,260,true],"portfolio_slider":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=500%2C380&ssl=1",500,380,true],"portfolio_masonry_regular":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=500%2C500&ssl=1",500,500,true],"portfolio_masonry_wide":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=900%2C500&ssl=1",900,500,true],"portfolio_masonry_tall":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=500%2C609&ssl=1",500,609,true],"portfolio_masonry_large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=900%2C609&ssl=1",900,609,true],"portfolio_masonry_with_space":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?fit=700%2C474&ssl=1",700,474,true],"latest_post_boxes":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=539%2C303&ssl=1",539,303,true],"woocommerce_thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=300%2C300&ssl=1",300,300,true],"woocommerce_single":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?fit=600%2C406&ssl=1",600,406,true],"woocommerce_gallery_thumbnail":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/post-2238.jpg?resize=100%2C100&ssl=1",100,100,true]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"admin","author_link":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/author\/admin\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"Philosophy<\/a> Uncategorized<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Once upon a time, there was a turkey\u00a0living the good life on a farm. He\u00a0passed his days in blissful peace,\u00a0each day as lovely as the one before.\u00a0Three times a day a nice farmworker\u00a0brought him a bucket of feed, which\u00a0the turkey gobbled down in ever-\u00a0greater quantities....","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36869"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36869"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36870,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36869\/revisions\/36870"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lecturesbureau.gr\/1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}